Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 640 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020 Valid 12Z Fri May 01 2020 - 12Z Tue May 05 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... An upper high over northwestern Alaska will meander in place during the first five days in May. This favors troughing from the southern Bering along the Aleutians into the southern Gulf. The models/ensembles have been generally stable the past several days but have showed a bit more difference in timing today with the 12Z GFS/GEFS quicker than the rest of the guidance out of the North Pacific later this weekend. Farther east, in the Gulf and across the Panhandle, the 12Z GFS was much more reasonable. The 12Z ECMWF was favored overall which paired well with its ensemble mean, and was used as the strong majority for the forecast next Sun-Tue. The 12Z UKMET has offered some agreement with the ECMWF in recent days while the Canadian continues to be just a bit displaced from the best consensus. Focus will be over the southern Gulf/Northeast Pacific as a modest system curls back northward and north-northwestward, blocked by the upper high over the mainland. Its occlusion will likely push northward through the Panhandle Saturday with perhaps a second push as mid-level shortwaves rotate around the upper low. To the west, old parent low will slowly fill over and just south of the Aleutians as another system looks to enter the Bering early Mon. Again, favored the guidance slower than the GFS which was a bit slower than the forecast 24 hrs ago. Ensembles indicate this system will move eastward or east-southeastward like its predecessor several days prior. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Pattern remains rather unsettled for the Panhandle with multiple waves of rain/snow near/ahead of the lead occlusion, though the heavier rain/snow will likely be forced into British Columbia. The Interior, by contrast, will be nearly precipitation-free owing to the upper and sfc high. The Aleutians will see generally light rain after Fri-Sat as the sfc low slowly weakens, and then a renewed chance wit the next system next Mon-Tue. Temperature anomalies will mostly hold in place with near normal readings for most of the state but with the better chance of sustained above average temperatures near the Bering Sea/Bristol Bay. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html