Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Thu May 07 2020
Valid 12Z Mon May 11 2020 - 12Z Fri May 15 2020
...Much above normal temperatures to linger for parts of mainland
Alaska...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
A composite blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from the
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles along with the 19 UTC
National Blend of Models offers system detail consistent with an
amplified pattern with overall above normal predictability. WPC
continuity was well maintained.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
An amplified upper ridge will be in place over mainland AK into
next week. Temperatures will range upwards of 20 degrees above
average, with 60s and 70s likely for parts of the Interior. Some
trough energy aloft is expected however to start slicing into the
upper ridge early next week and bring moderating post-frontal high
pressure over the North Slope and eastern Interior.
Lead low energies underneath over the Gulf of AK should offer
limited influence on AK weather early next week, but flow may
support periodic rainfall into the southern Alaskan tier. Upstream
surface low/frontal system development should then offer more
robust upper support. This storm is slated to threaten the
Aleutians and southern Bering Sea Tue/Wed before digging
increasingly offshore/southeastward across the northeast Pacific
into Thu/Fri as mainly a maritime hazard.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sun-Thu, May 10-May 14.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sun-Tue, May 10-May 12.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html