Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
618 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 04 2020
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A series of organized systems from the Bering Sea should move east
across mainland AK along with slowly weakening surface fronts
Tue/Wed and generate unsettled/showery conditions with passage.
Elsewhere, a more deepened low pressure system crossing the North
Pacific is forecast to work from the southern to eastern Bering
Sea Wed-Fri as a lead associated front sweeps east across the
Aleutians toward Southwest AK. A second deepened low may follow
quickly behind it into the southern Bering Sea next Fri/Sat.
Showery conditions along with gusty winds should accompany these
system across the Aleutians, and perhaps into portions of the AK
Peninsula as a warming downstream upper ridge slowly builds in
advance up into AK.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product for Tue-Thu (Days 4-6) was
made from a composite blend of well clustered solutions from the
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the 19
UTC National Blend of Models. Opted to use the still reasonably
well clustered ECMWF and ensemble means Days 7/8 (next Fri-Sat).
This maintains decent WPC continuity.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html