Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 548 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2020 - 12Z Fri Jul 10 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Upper troughing initially over northeastern Russia and northwestern Canada Monday will consolidate toward western/southwestern Alaska by the end of next week. An additional system near the AKPen will move southeastward south of the Gulf and Panhandle. The pattern supports relatively weaker features over the mainland with perhaps a front ahead of the consolidated but amorphous troughing next Thu/Fri. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF paired fairly well with their ensemble means (with partial support from the UKMET/Canadian) such that a blended solution served well through the period. Increased ensemble weighting was used to balance the uncertainty by later next week over the central North Pacific. This was a bit of a shift from the forecast 24 h ago which favored the Bering upper trough/low over the Gulf upper low. Backed off on the former for the latter which also progressed the front farther east quicker. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Increased troughing will promote cooler than average temperatures over most of the state next week, perhaps by 10-15 degrees in some spots. Showers will be favored over the Alaska Range amid daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures. Light showers are possible over the western Aleutians midweek as a dying warm front approaches from the south. Showers may be enhanced over Southcentral later in the week as the upper trough axis sinks toward the region. Rainfall is not expected to be heavy over a widespread area. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html