Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
548 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2020 - 12Z Fri Jul 10 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Upper troughing initially over northeastern Russia and
northwestern Canada Monday will consolidate toward
western/southwestern Alaska by the end of next week. An additional
system near the AKPen will move southeastward south of the Gulf
and Panhandle. The pattern supports relatively weaker features
over the mainland with perhaps a front ahead of the consolidated
but amorphous troughing next Thu/Fri. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF paired
fairly well with their ensemble means (with partial support from
the UKMET/Canadian) such that a blended solution served well
through the period. Increased ensemble weighting was used to
balance the uncertainty by later next week over the central North
Pacific. This was a bit of a shift from the forecast 24 h ago
which favored the Bering upper trough/low over the Gulf upper low.
Backed off on the former for the latter which also progressed the
front farther east quicker.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Increased troughing will promote cooler than average temperatures
over most of the state next week, perhaps by 10-15 degrees in some
spots. Showers will be favored over the Alaska Range amid daytime
heating and cooling mid-level temperatures. Light showers are
possible over the western Aleutians midweek as a dying warm front
approaches from the south. Showers may be enhanced over
Southcentral later in the week as the upper trough axis sinks
toward the region. Rainfall is not expected to be heavy over a
widespread area.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html