Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 545 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 09 2020 - 12Z Mon Jul 13 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Upper troughing will settle over western Alaska later in the next week as the flow across the North Pacific flattens. A cold front will push away from Southcentral and into/through the Gulf toward Hadai Gwaii. Another system from the central North Pacific will eventually move toward the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN/Kodiak later this coming weekend, perhaps as weakening waves. A consensus blend served well to start the forecast, with the ensembles squarely between the GFS and ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET. Given the shifts in the forecast the past few days, all deterministic models were generally within tolerance. By next Sun/Mon, flattening pattern across the Pacific favors quicker/weaker (and hard to forecast) features, depicted as weak waves along a mostly continuous boundary near and south of the Aleutians. To the north, upper troughing should hold over western Alaska to the southeast of upper ridging over the Arctic. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Troughing will promote generally near to cooler than average temperatures over most of the state next week into the weekend, perhaps by 10-15 degrees over the Brooks Range. Parts of western coastal areas as well as the Aleutians may see near to above average temperatures. Showers will be favored over the Alaska Range amid daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures. Some areas could see heavier amounts. Showers are possible over the western Aleutians Thu-Fri as a front dissipates nearby. Showers will skirt along the Panhandle with the system in the Gulf late Thu into Fri and perhaps Sat. Only isolated showers are expected north of the Brooks Range on the Arctic Slope. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html