Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 529 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 09 2020 - 12Z Thu Aug 13 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Troughing over the mainland and into the Gulf will weaken/move eastward as a more robust Bering system pushes into southwestern areas around the middle of next week. The 12Z models and ensembles offered a reasonable clustering for most of the features, and a consensus blend was suitable. For the lead system in the Gulf, models have shifted in unison to a quicker and deeper low just off the northern Panhandle by early Sunday, in contrast to just 24 hours ago. Hard to ignore such a strong clustering despite the poor continuity, but sfc wave development can be fickle even at "only" 4-5 days out. Thereafter, guidance remained quite consistent in the Bering, with the 12Z models near the ensemble consensus through about next Wed. After that, parent system may progress inland and shear out eastward, with possible development along the front back to the southwest. Farther south, strong upper high is forecast to retrograde westward, which would at least bump the front enough to make any scenario of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian plausible, thus included all for some detail out to next Thu, but with a slight majority ensemble weighting. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Lead system in the Gulf will bring a chance of modest to locally heavier rain to the far Southeastern areas and Panhandle Sat (before this period) into Sun. Farther north, a weakening frontal boundary and topographical effects will result in scattered convection across northern portions of the Interior as well as the Brooks Range that will gradually dwindle through early next week. Bering system next week Mon-Thu will bring showers/rain to the Aleutians with breezy conditions as well. Expect at least some rainfall into western/southwestern areas as the warm front approaches late Tue/early Wed that is forecast to spread across Southcentral. In general, lower than average heights along with abundant clouds and precipitation will keep high temperatures across much of Alaska several degrees below normal, and low temperatures near to several degrees above normal. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle Sat-Sun, Aug 8-Aug 9. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html