Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 644 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Aug 10 2020 - 12Z Fri Aug 14 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Troughing over the mainland will be reinforced from the west as a defined Bering system straddles the Aleutians next week. The 12Z models and ensembles offered a reasonable clustering for most of the features through next Wed, and a consensus blend was suitable. This did nudge the Bering system a bit farther south, passing along the Aleutians rather than through the southern Bering. Thereafter, models/ensemble means were split in how the system evolves into the Gulf. There may be enough downstream riding, albeit weak, to help temporarily slow the Aleutian system before the ridge erodes and the system continues westward, but this was not shown by the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian. Favored that cluster with only a minority ensemble weighting (which was split/sheared in appearance fast vs slow) which showed the system progressive and eventually into the Gulf later next week. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Bering/Aleutian system next week Mon-Thu will bring showers/rain to the Aleutians with breezy conditions as well as the modest parent low scrapes the islands. Expect light to modest rainfall into western/southwestern areas as the warm front approaches early Wed. This will spread eastward across Southcentral as the triple point develops in the Gulf, perhaps enhanced by next Thu/Fri as the upper trough head eastward. Temperatures will be within several degrees of normal through the period, trending just a bit milder overall. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html