Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 638 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 18 2020 - 12Z Sat Aug 22 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... Overall, model/ensemble guidance continued to show near to above average consensus through the extended forecast period. A blend of the 12Z ECMWF/GFS was used heavily as a forecast starting point initially on days 4-5 (Tue-Wed). A gradual trend toward increased weight placed on ensemble means (ECENS/GEFS) was shown through time after Wed, with majority ensembles in the blend during days 7-8 (Fri-Sat). Overall, guidance is consistent in showing a fairly amplified pattern continuing, with an upper trough persistent across the Gulf of Alaska, and ridging expected to build across the Bering Sea next week. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... A low pressure system is forecast to cross the Alaska Peninsula on Tue, moving into the Gulf of Alaska through the middle/end of next week. This system will keep precipitation a distinct possibility across southern mainland Alaska as well as the Panhandle. Farther north, a weakening frontal boundary across the Interior should bring scattered showers by next Tue-Wed. By later next week, as upper ridging builds across the Bering Sea and western mainland Alaska, drier conditions should prevail across much of mainland, with only the Panhandle/Southeast Alaska remaining wet. In general, this pattern should favor temperatures several degrees above average across much of the state. The North Slope will see decreasing temperatures north of the weakening frontal boundary next week, with high temperatures expected to drop to a few degrees below average. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html