Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 735 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 22 2020 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The spread with today's model guidance increased in comparison to the last few cycles, struggle to lock on to any one track. The consensus agrees a robust low will track from the Bering to the Gulf early in the week and eventually track toward the Panhandle. A few suggest an Arctic trough plunges into the Bering/western Alaska behind this low, which would affect the strengthen/movement of this low by the later periods. Given the uncertainty, opted to initialize with a general blend of the 12Z EC/GFS/CMC/UK as clustering were pretty good for Monday. Beyond that, the EC mean/GEFS mean/NAEFS were included Tuesday to the end of the forecast to reduce the spread. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Lingering clouds and showers across parts of the southern Mainland and Panhandle as a weak front passes. A more robust low pressure system crossing the Aleutians into the Gulf will spread heavy precipitation from the central Aleutian Chain, all along the southern coastal areas Monday and Tuesday, shifting to the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger winds will also accompany this low as it exits the Bering and tracks into the Gulf. With the low hanging around in the Gulf, high winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday for portions of the Southeast. Much of the southern coastal areas and the North Slope will have maximum daily temperatures near or below average through the extended period while much of the Interior will observe above average temperatures. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Sep 21-Sep 22. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue-Wed, Sep 22-Sep 23. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue-Wed, Sep 22-Sep 23. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html