Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 738 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 10 2020 - 12Z Wed Oct 14 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The trend of evolving the closed low over the Bering Sea/elongated trough over the Gulf/closed low reaching the Mainland from the northeast into a mean trough over the mainland persists with the latest guidance suite. Consensus places a lasting surface low near the Gulf of Alaska while another area of low pressure tracks southeast from the Bering sea and weakens along the way/absorbs into the larger circulation. The GFS has been persistent in being deeper and faster than other solutions the last several runs, which given the uncertainty of timing, location and strength, it was used to a lesser degree. The preferred model, in coordination with the Alaska local forecast offices, was the 12Z ECWMF. The 12Z ECWMF had a heavier weighting, but was also paired with the 12Z CMC/UKMET/GFS initially with gradual inclusion of the 00Z EC ensemble and the 12Z GEFS mean. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... With the upper-level pattern favoring mean troughing during this period, precipitation across portions of the southern coast and the Southeast will be favorable. Heavy precipitation will be possible for portions of the Kenai Peninsula on Friday. Impacts to the Southeast remain uncertain at this time. If the low tracks to the eastern Gulf/south of the panhandle, this favors higher precipitation to the southern islands and drier further north. Lowering heights aloft may produce scattered precipitation at times over the mainland which will be in the gradient between Arctic high pressure and Gulf low pressure. The Aleutians should see brisk and unsettled conditions. In regards to daily temperatures, a majority of the state will have warmer than average temperatures through mid-month. However, portions of the Panhandle and the southern coast will have afternoon highs near or slightly below normal. A few isolated near to below normal highs may be possible over the north. Min temperatures will likely be above to well above normal over most areas, except for near to slightly below normal over the Panhandle. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation for the eastern portion of Kenai Peninsula in southern Alaska, Fri, Oct 9. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html