Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 704 PM EDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 12 2020 - 12Z Fri Oct 16 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Initially, models are generally clustered well with the lows near the Kenai and crossing the Aleutians. Noted that the 12Z UKMET is running a mb deeper and faster than other guidance with these to features, while lagging behind/south by about 6-12 hrs with the low in the North Pacific tracking toward the Southeast/British Columbia. The 12Z GFS continues to be more so an outlier especially with the system in the North Pacific- it is the furthest south and tracks the low offshore of the Washington/Oregon coast while the rest of the guidance aimed for Vancouver and areas to the north. Models diverge a bit during Monday and into Tuesday but lock on to the low near/south of the Kenai by Tuesday night/Wednesday. The 12Z ECZEMA suggests a deepening of the low more over the central Gulf by the end of the extended period. The ECWMF has been persistent with the evolution of these three features the past few days. The latest CMC has trended toward a similar solution as the ECWMF. The preferred model blend largely relied on the 12Z ECWMF/CMC with minor weighting of the UKMET early on and then gradually increasing the inclusion of the ECWMF and ensemble means for Wednesday and beyond. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Much of the southern coast and portions of the panhandle with have precipitation throughout the extended period, with periods of heavier intensity especially the Southeast and areas of higher terrain Tuesday through at least Friday. Cloud cover will hang around for much of the southern half of the state and for the North Slope for several days. There continues to be spread with where the low will track, however, if it tracks to the eastern Gulf/south of the panhandle, this favors higher precipitation to the southern islands and drier further north. Cooler temperatures are expected to filter into from the north through the week with will aid in lowering heights aloft. This could scattered precipitation at times over the mainland which will be in the gradient between Arctic high pressure and Gulf low pressure. The Aleutians should see brisk and unsettled conditions. Daily highs will mainly range from the 30s to 50s from north to south this weekend, however cooler air will begin to settle in over the state. Highs will range from the upper teens near the Arctic to the 40s in across the southern Mainland/panhandle by next week and overnight lows will range from the 10s to the 30s/40s. For portions of the Panhandle and the southern coast this will be near or slightly below normal for mid-October. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across much of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue, Oct 13 and Thu, Oct 15 WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html