Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 538 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 19 2020 - 12Z Fri Oct 23 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Upper ridging is forecast to move into interior Alaska from the west by midweek next week, blocking much of the state from significant precipitation. The 12Z guidance showed good agreement overall to start the period Mon-Tue and a deterministic blend sufficed. Thereafter, the 12Z GFS strayed from the 12Z ECMWF/Canadian and ensemble mean consensus with its farther north solution nearing the AKPen/Kodiak next week. This may stem from an earlier focus on a system across the Pacific where the other models develop a trailing system. With the uncertainty in the smaller/embedded systems, opted to rely on the larger cluster of solutions near the 12Z ECMWF. This would mean increased but a bit slower upper ridging into western areas next Wed-Thu, perhaps into Fri, favoring any system to stay just to the south of the area except for the Aleutians. ...Weather/Threats Highlights.. Upper ridging will bring above normal temperatures to much of the Interior, especially over the North Slope. There, temperatures may be 15-20 degrees above normal (upper 20s to low 30s). Areas of southeastern Alaska and especially the Panhandle will see near to below normal temperatures (perhaps by 10-20F) as high pressure delivers easterly flow to the region. Rainfall will be confined to the Aleutians and coastal Southcentral areas, as well as into the Panhandle early in the week as lingering surface low pressure weakens. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html