Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 532 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 25 2020 - 12Z Sun Nov 29 2020 ...Continued stormy pattern next week... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Progressive and amplified flow will maintain the barrage of storms across parts of Alaska next week into next weekend. 12Z models/ensembles were in decent agreement for the first few days of the period, with expected track/depth/timing differences. Trend has been toward a slightly slower/deeper depiction of the systems but has remained rather steady considering the speed of the jet (~150kts later next week south of the Aleutians). Utilized a mostly deterministic blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET Wed-Fri before trending toward about a 50% ensemble mean blend by next weekend. The Fri-Sat system showed some spread mostly in the N-S direction (ECMWF farthest south, Canadian to the north, GFS more or less in the middle) but still preferred to keep the low north of the Aleutians through the southern Bering into Bristol Bay by 12Z next Sat. Front should move into the Gulf then Panhandle later next weekend per the consensus/ensembles. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Lead system along western Alaska/Y-K Delta/AKPen will spread modest to perhaps locally heavy precipitation along Kodiak across the southern Kenai Peninsula as the frontal boundary moves eastward. Triple point will take aim on the northern Panhandle where precipitation should maximize around Yakutat before spreading down the Panhandle as the warm front comes ashore and weakens. Next system in the Bering Fri-Sat will spread rain/snow/wind across the Aleutians to southwestern Alaska as the parent low may slowly decay over Bristol Bay to the AKPen. Precipitation distribution is uncertain as the models differ on the amount of forcing over water vs land and moisture influx. Southern to southeastern-facing areas would be favored as is typical for this evolution. This includes the western side of Cook Inlet and southeastern Kenai, where several inches of precipitation are possible. Temperatures will remain well above normal along northern areas thanks to upper ridging and above normal lower level temperatures, extending along western/southwestern areas as well. Southeastern portion of the mainland into the Panhandle will see varied temperatures within several degrees of typical late November values. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html