Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 PM EST Sun Jan 10 2021
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 14 2021 - 12Z Mon Jan 18 2021
...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
With high pressure dominating across much of the interior region,
the focus for sensible weather will reside along the coastal areas
and panhandle where a deep surface low is still forecast to lift
through late in the work week /day 5/ and continue into next
weekend /day 6/. The GFS continued to be a slower/southern
solution with the low pressure while the ECMWF/CMC offered another
cycle of agreement and clustering. Details become more murky
beyond day 6 as another low pressure could lift into the Gulf of
Alaska but there's considerable spread in the latest models. The
WPC blend preferred the 12Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET initially then
transitioned to a blend mostly from the ECENS/NAEFS.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
One storm system is expected to impact the coastal areas and
southeast Alaska late in the work week /day 5/ time frame and
could bring heavy precipitation, significant waves, and higher
winds, especially for southeast Alaska where the moisture fetch is
greatest. A break in the active weather is then expected for the
middle of the forecast period before another low pressure could
lift into the Gulf of Alaska by day 7/8. Details for that system
are murky given the considerable model spread but widespread
precipitation and some hazards could accompany it along the
coastal areas. Temperatures are forecast to be mostly above normal
for much of the region during the period.
Taylor
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html