Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 548 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 24 2021 - 12Z Thu Jan 28 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Ample closed low/trough tracks into the Bering Sea and complex downstream energy transfers into and undercutting periodic lead upper ridging over the Interior and the Gulf of Alaska really have the models scrambling to maintain deepened embedded system continuity much beyond day 4 forecasts. A 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/UKMET model composite seems reasonable Sunday, but fast growing forecast spread and run to run variance makes it difficult to favor any particular model onward and instead prefer a more compatible blend of the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means. This maintains good WPC product continuity that still highlights the most predictable low systems showing deeper development and threat potential. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... There is a good guidance signal showing that a reasonably deep Aleutian/Bering system Sun/Mon will bring breezy conditions/waves and precipitation to the unsettled region. This should spread along the western coast of Alaska as the front pivots and redevelops to the southeast across the AKPen into Tue. Yet another deepened system could spread additional rain/snow and a threat of high winds/waves to the Aleutians by Tue-Wed. This system offers less predictability along with details of potential subsequent effects into western Alaska and back into a possibly stormy Gulf of Alaska later next week. The majority of the state will see above to much above normal temperatures this weekend, with the most extreme anomalies likely to be over northern and western areas. Temperatures should cool back toward more typical late January values next week. The Panhandle may see a larger area of below normal readings after a modest lead weekend system departs and offshore flow increases with frontal surge. Schichtel Hazards: - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Jan 26-Jan 27. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html