Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 30 2021 - 12Z Wed Feb 03 2021
...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was derived from
reasonably well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS and ECMWF
models for Saturday through Monday, along with the 19 UTC National
Blend of Models and some of the ensemble means. For next Tuesday
and Wednesday, there was a gradual increase in using the
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means due to increasing deterministic model
spread. Some of yesterday's continuity was also incorporated into
the forecast process.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
A gradually weakening Bering Sea storm on Saturday will continue
to result in enhanced snow showers for southeastern mainland
Alaska and across the southeastern Panhandle region. The next
storm approaching from the western Aleutians early next week is
expected to produce moderate precipitation and gusty winds across
the Aleutians on Monday and Tuesday, and then likely reaching the
southern mainland by the middle of next week. It appears that the
moisture plume will be progressive enough to keep things from
getting too heavy or persistent. For the Interior region, most of
the forecast period should be dry and cold with perhaps a few
light snow showers.
Hamrick
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html