Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 628 PM EST Tue Feb 09 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 13 2021 - 12Z Wed Feb 17 2021 ...Guidance/Uncertainty and Weather/Hazards Assessments... An upper ridge building over the mainland through high latitudes into this weekend will usher in a more moderate pattern across the region. However, there is a growing guidance signal to dig Arctic trough energy/height falls down over the North Slope and northwest Alaska next week in more unsettled but mainly dry flow. Meanwhile, a stormy weather pattern focus is likely across the southern Bering Sea and the Aleutians as a series of Pacific storm systems work through the region, rotating within a broader upper level trough position. System potential remains heightened for these deep lows whose wrapping flow will threaten the Aleutians and the AKPen/Kodiak and Southwest Alaska through the weekend and into next week. Additional maritime system activity to the east seems more modest over an unsettled Gulf of Alaska for the next week, but the flow could eventually bring some organized precipitation onshore downstream into southern and southeast Alaska. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET are clustered enough (Canadian an outlier) that a blend seems to offer a decent forecast for day 4-6/Sat-Mon consistent with a pattern with average predictability. Forecast spread decreases onward when the compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seem to provide a more reasonable larger scale flow evolution. Schichtel Hazards: - No significant hazards are expected for Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html