Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 602 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 02 2021 - 12Z Sat Mar 06 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Upper pattern will transition from defined/semi-amplified to more zonal by the end of next week, suggesting decreased confidence in system timing/track/amplitude. The models/ensembles showed signs of this lower predictability pattern with a bit less agreement than in the past few days. However, overall agreement remained good to start and a mostly deterministic blend sufficed as a starting point. Gave a bit more weight to the GFS/ECMWF which offered better agreement with the ensemble means (GEFS and ECMWF EPS) than did the UKMET and Canadian. After the lead system moves through the Panhandle early Tue, pattern will trend toward weaker systems that move quickly through the flow or try to develop around the backside of the Gulf upper trough. Focus for upper troughing will turn to eastern Asia/northeastern Russia as upper heights build over the North Central Pacific, aiding in a quickening N Pac jet. Trended toward a majority ensemble weighting by the end of next week as this increasingly zonal pattern develops, due to a decrease in model agreement (though the ensemble means were still in good agreement overall). ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Gulf system on Tue will bring rain/snow to the region and turn showery for the end of the week as the upper trough digs into/through the Gulf. Light to perhaps locally modest rain/snow is likely for the Aleutians later in the week in response to the far NW Bering system and frontal passage. This may spread some light snow into southwestern areas as the weakenig system moves into the Gulf. Temperatures will generally be below normal over much of the state next week (especially Tue-Wed), focused over the western/southwestern portion of the state as the upper low moves through. Some moderation is forecast as ridging moves into the area, by the end of the week, limiting the cold air to much of the Interior as well as the Panhandle. Fracasso Hazards: - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Mar 1. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html