Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 442 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 04 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 08 2021 ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Latest 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian guidance seem quite well clustered days 4-6 (Thu-Sat) and a composite for that period offers great continuity in an amplified starting pattern with below normal forecast spread and uncertainty. Pacific energy breaking through the flow differences (mainly into the Gulf of Alaska) and more typical smaller scale guidance variance days 7-8 (next Sun-Mon) elsewhere still portends preference for more of a generally compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean solution. However, opted to keep some GFS/ECMWF model input in the blend since predictability still seems reasonable at mid-larger scales at these longer time frames. WPC continuity is well maintained with this plan. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Deepened low influence focus over the Gulf of Alaska gradually weakens or reforms over the eastern and southeastern Gulf later week into next weekend as uncertain Pacific energies break through amplified flow. While a prolonged but tempered maritime threat remains over the Gulf of Alaska under closed upper low/troughing, this overall evolution should limit most associated onshore precipitation to the Southeast Panhandle during this period. Meanwhile, energetic upstream energies are slated to work northward into the Bering Sea on the western periphery of an initially highly amplified midweek upper ridge position. The ridge shunts eastward from the Bering Sea to western mainland and steadily erodes into late week. While the brunt of storm energies focus west of the state this week, a series of ejecting and weakening systems will bring several rounds of moderate precipitation increasingly onshore with time into the western Interior and eventually late period also through southwest Alaska and the AKPen as unsettled/amplified Bering Sea upper troughing works eastward/inland. In this pattern expect a generally benign weather pattern otherwise for much of the North Slope and Interior where below normal temperature linger through late week. However, increased flow into the region may act to moderate temperatures next weekend. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html