Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 744 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 26 2021 - 12Z Wed Jun 30 2021 ...Rainy conditions expected for portions of the Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula, Kenai Peninsula, and the panhandle later this week... ...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation... The latest guidance and the ensemble means persist in keeping a mean trough over the Aleutian Chain and portions of Southwest Alaska with multiple surface lows moving through. The strength and timing of each cyclonic circulation varied by each model depiction; however the solutions are fairly clustered over the Bering Sea, Aleutians and western Gulf of Alaska through about 12Z 27th. The clustering decreases though the 28th before becoming quite spread out by 12Z 29th. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was a composite blend of 12Z GFS/ECWMF/CMC/UKMET initially with increasing weights of the 12Z GEFS mean/00Z EC mean from mid to late in the extended period. This blend maintains the deeper cyclone before gradually weakening it and moving towards the Bering Sea. This storm is still expected to support locally heavy rain from the Kenai peninsula over to southeast AK/panhandle, as well as, increased cloudiness and rain near the North Slope. The potential for rain will linger into the weekend before this boundary weakens. A new cyclone is expected to develop at the base of the Bering Sea trough in the north Pacific, impacting the adjacent Aleutians, up to and including the AK peninsula next Monday, bringing another round of wind and showers to these regions. Also during the course of the extended period, temperatures are forecast to be above seasonal average-- especially across the Panhandle as the ridge over the north Pacific Ocean persists. Elsewhere, temperatures will largely be near normal or slightly cooler than average. Campbell Hazards - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Jun 25. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html