Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 801 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 28 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 ...Rainy conditions expected for portions of the Aleutians, Alaskan Peninsula, Kenai Peninsula, and the panhandle... ...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation... Like the past few runs of the model guidance, there is general consensus with the mean trough and multiple low pressure systems moving through the circulation over the Aleutians and Bering Sea earlier in the extended period. Cooler air will filter into northwest potions of the Arctic Coast, so this portion of the state will see temperatures drop a few degrees. The model spread beyond day 5 show struggling with the strength and placement of the ridge over the Gulf of Alaska, southern and southeast portions of the Mainland. With the ridge expected to take up residence somewhere over the Gulf of Alaska by early in the week, and staying there, it will favor continued heat (after the wave passing through Friday) for portions of the Mainland but particularly the Panhandle for the rest of the extended period. The ridge will also help weaken the individual surface lows crossing the Aleutians as they approach the western Gulf of Alaska. This will largely keep the showers over the Aleutians, western and portions of southwest Alaska. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was a composite blend of 12Z GFS/ECWMF/CMC/UKMET for the early periods and then weighting of the 12Z GEFS Mean and the 00Z ECWMF Ensemble Mean was incrementally increased beyond day 5 to account for the magnified spread in the pattern evolution. Campbell WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html