Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 626 PM EDT Sat Oct 30 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 03 2021 - 12Z Sun Nov 07 2021 ...Overview and Model Guidance... A complex stormy weather pattern with potent offshore storms will continue to affect portions of Alaska next week. The flow will feature several potent Bering Sea, Arctic, and Gulf of Alaskan surface lows rotating within energetic/closed mean upper troughs over these areas and around the periphery of an amplified western Canada to Interior mean upper ridge. Guidance continuity and variance with embedded features remains less than stellar throughout medium range time scales, but a blend of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF with the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means (that do have compatible larger scale pattern evolutions) and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models (except QPF/PoPs) again does offer a seemingly reasonable solution that maintains decent WPC product continuity when weighting shifts increasingly from the higher resolution models that offer more detail consistent with higher predictability for days 4/5 (Wednesday/Thursday) and then quickly shifting main focus to the ensemble means as predictability quickly decreases into days 6-8 (Friday-next weekend). ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... An extratropical low partially associated with recent western Pacific Typhoon Malou should rotate across the northern Gulf of Alaska Wednesday/Thursday. This offers some threat for maritime interests and inland as heavy precipitation works from southeast through southern Alaska and the AKpen/Kodiak Island. Additional storm systems will also this period work over the Bering Sea as a maritime threat and combine with energies lifting on the western periphery of an amplified Interior upper ridge position to spread enhanced winds/precipitation across the region and into western Alaska. In this pattern, the central and eastern Interior through the North Slope should enjoy much above normal readings next week, with many locals more than 20 degrees above normal. Deep energy digging underneath into the Gulf of Alaska later next week into next weekend also presents a favorable environment for storm genesis with amplified/closed upper trough development to present a multi-day maritime and southern/southeastern coastal threat. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html