Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 PM EDT Fri Nov 05 2021
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 09 2021 - 12Z Sat Nov 13 2021
...Overview and Model Guidance...
Model spread/differences do not appear too excessive today in and
around Alaska through the medium-range period. Much of the model
uncertainty lies well to the south of Alaska in the northeastern
Pacific where the main storm track is forecast to stay. A blend
of the deterministic 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and CMC together with their
ensemble means was used to compose the WPC forecasts for
Alaska for Days 4-6. This was followed by transitioning to mostly
an even blend of the ensemble means by Day 8. Overall, this blend
yielded a solution very compatible with yesterday's WPC forecasts.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
The Alaska region should be relatively quiet in terms of impactful
precipitation and hazards through much of the medium-range period.
Dry conditions will likely prevail for the interior sections
northward to the North Slope with only a few interior mountain
snow showers. The Panhandle will likely see the chance of
precipitation increasing through the medium-range period as the
main storm track across the northeastern Pacific converges toward
British Columbia and the Alaska Panhandle by the latter half of
next week. The precipitation may become heavy by next Friday and
into the weekend when a stronger system is forecast to edge closer
but model uncertainty is relatively high at this stage.
For temperatures, a cooling trend is forecast for the entire state
through the medium-range period as surface high pressure builds in
across the region. The North Slope region of Alaska should begin
the period with above normal temperatures which will gradually
cool to near normal by the end of the week. Southwestern Alaska
will likely see the coldest temperature anomaly, which should
expand further inland as the week progresses.
Kong
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html