Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 743 PM EDT Sat Nov 06 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 10 2021 - 12Z Sun Nov 14 2021 ...Overview and Model Guidance... Model spread/differences do not appear excessive again today in and around Alaska through the medium-range period. Much of the model uncertainty lies well to the south of Alaska in the northeastern Pacific where the main storm track is forecast to stay. Towards the end of next week, models are in rather good agreement for a cyclone to curve into the Gulf of Alaska. The 12Z ECMWF, rather than the 00Z run, appears more compatible with the rest of the guidance by slowing down the forward motion of this cyclone. Therefore, a blend of the deterministic 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and CMC together with their ensemble means was used to compose the WPC forecasts for Alaska for Days 4-6, followed by transitioning to mostly an even blend of the ensemble means by Day 8. Overall, this blend yielded a solution quite compatible with yesterday's WPC forecasts. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The Alaska region should be relatively quiet in terms of impactful precipitation and hazards through much of the medium-range period. Dry conditions will likely prevail for the interior sections northward to the North Slope. Meanwhile, a cyclone should be on its demise when it gets closer to the southern tip of the Panhandle on Wednesday. As the weekend approaches, an increasing chance of precipitation is expected to overspread the Panhandle where the main storm track across the northeastern Pacific converges with the approach of a significant occluded cyclone. The precipitation may become heavy by next Friday and into the weekend ahead of this system along the Panhandle. For temperatures, colder than normal conditions are expected to persist for the central and southern portions of Alaska, with sub-zero temperatures over the interior section. The coldest anomaly will be found across southwestern mainland. The Alaska Peninsula, the Panhandle, and the Aleutians will also see below normal temperatures. Meanwhile, the North Slope will likely experience above normal temperatures into next weekend. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html