Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 641 PM EST Sun Nov 07 2021 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 11 2021 - 12Z Mon Nov 15 2021 ...Overview and Model Guidance... Model guidance today shows rather good agreement on the synoptic evolution for Alaska through the medium-range period, especially with respect to the ensemble means. The most significant system of concern will be a sizable occluded cyclone forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska late this week and then slowly weaken by the weekend. By early next week, models are indicating a negatively-tilted trough to move into the western Aleutians, with some spread on how far southeast the upper-level energy will dig. A higher percentage of the ensemble means from the 12Z GEFS, 00Z EC mean, and 12Z CMC was included to handle the uncertainty associated with this system on Days 7-8. This yielded an elongated occluded cyclone edging slowly into the western Aleutians for early next week. For Days 4-6, a blend of the deterministic and ensemble means from the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC provided very compatible results with yesterday's forecasts. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The majority of Alaska will remain relatively quiet weatherwise through much of the medium-range period. Dry conditions will likely continue for the interior sections northward to the North Slope. Meanwhile, an occluded cyclone is forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska late this week, bringing an increasing chance of precipitation to the Panhandle. The precipitation along the Panhandle may become heavy by Friday and will likely linger into the weekend. Some of the heavier precipitation could spread further north into the southern coastal sections of Mainland as the system slowly weakens. Farther west, the next occluded cyclone is forecast to bring an increasing chance of rain and gusty winds into the western Aleutians early next week. For temperatures, colder than normal conditions are expected to persist for the central and southern portions of Alaska, with sub-zero temperatures over the interior section. The coldest anomaly will be found across southwestern mainland. The Alaska Peninsula, the Panhandle, and the Aleutians will also see below normal temperatures. Meanwhile, the North Slope will likely experience above normal temperatures into early next week. Light winds will prevail across much of Mainland as a weak surface high pressure system remains in place. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html