Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 01 2021 - 12Z Sun Dec 05 2021 ...Well below normal temperatures over southwestern Alaska should moderate by next weekend... ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The new model guidance today appears to be compatible with each other enough through Day 8 that a general model compromise should offer a good starting point. An even blend of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, 12Z ECMWF/00Z EC mean, together with some contributions from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean was adopted from Days 4 to 6. Higher percentages from the ensemble means were then used for Days 7 and 8. This blend yielded a solution quite similar to yesterday's forecasts with these notable differences: (a) a compact low pressure wave on Wednesday now tracks just north of the Aleutians instead of to the south, (b) the next significant frontal system of concern now moves faster across the Bering Sea next Friday. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... An occluded cyclone hovering near the southern coast of Alaska midweek will likely weaken slowly through the end of the week, easing the threat of heavy precipitation through the southern periphery of Alaska and down along the Panhandle. Radiational cooling will likely keep temperatures much below normal for much of the southwestern mainland into the latter part of the week before a series of more energetic frontal systems brings southerly flow and the possibility of some locally enhanced snowfall with windy conditions into western Alaska by next weekend. Occasional rain and gusty winds can be expected farther south along the Aleutians next weekend. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html