Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 431 PM EST Sat Dec 04 2021 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 08 2021 - 12Z Sun Dec 12 2021 ...Deep and Dangerous Alaskan Lows next week... ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A deepened lead low working across the northern Gulf of Alaska presents a lingering maritime threat over the region along with a threat for locally heavy coastal rains and terrain enhanced heavy snows over the Southeast Panhandle through midweek. Meanwhile, upstream energy transfer over the Bering Sea will bring another low pressure system and an enhanced wind and snow threat focus back into western and southwestern Alaska midweek. Subsequent and amplifying upper trough energies tracking to the Bering Sea on the heels of this system by later seem increasingly likely to support deep southern Bering Sea storm genesis into Thursday, with some model guidance dropping low system pressure below 950 mb. This system presents a significant maritime and Aleutian wind and wave and wrapping precipitation threat. The powerful storm is slated to slam into southwest Alaska, the AKpen and southern Alaska Thursday into Friday. Downstream translation and northern Gulf triple point low redevelopment Friday into next weekend with act to threaten the region with high winds and offshore waves along with heavy precipitation onward into southeast Alaska. Forecast spread has improved through medium range time scales and the signal has increased for quite an active storm pattern next week, bolstering forecast confidence. Details from the 12 UTC ECMWF seems to be best clustered with GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and WPC continuity. Prefer a composite favoring the ECMWF day 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday), then increasingly the ensemble means into days 7/8 for next weekend. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html