Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EST Fri Jan 07 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 11 2022 - 12Z Sat Jan 15 2022
...Northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska storm pattern presents a
continued maritime and Aleutians/AKPen to southern/southeastern
Alaska heavy precipitation/wind threat next week...
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The latest models and ensembles continue to offer a reasonably
similar synoptic scale pattern evolution through medium range time
scales, but with lingering uncertainty with embedded systems.
Accordingly, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was
primarily derived from a composite blend of best clustered
guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian and 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble means along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models.
This maintains decent WPC product continuity.
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Weak upper troughing will settle over the mainland by early next
week and additional Arctic stream upper troughing is slated for an
unsettled northwest Alaska by mid-later next week. Meanwhile, a
potent storm track will continue to be reinforced near/south of
the Aleutians and the northern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska and present
a maritime threat. This will also favor multiple periods with
increasing moisture and enhanced winds in periodic tight pressure
gradients from the Aleutians/AKPen to south-central Alaska and the
Panhandle next week as a series of complex and potentially deep
lows regenerate and rotate around a mean larger scale circulation
that will be slow to dislodge to the south of the Aleutians and
the western Gulf of Alaska. Additional hazard details/links below.
Schichtel
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jan 10-Jan 11 and Thu-Fri, Jan 13-Jan 14.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Thu, Jan 13.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html