Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 549 PM EST Mon Jan 10 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 14 2022 - 12Z Tue Jan 18 2022 ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Guidance forecast spread has increased a bit since yesterday. Embedded system continuity is not ideal, but overall spread still seems manageable with usage of a 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian model blend Fri/Sat before transition Sunday to quite compatible GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means by early next week. Biggest model differences are in the day 6-8 time frame with the evolution of upper trough energies over the North Slope/Interior, lead upper ridging, and with North Pacific and Gulf of AK surface low genesis and system phasing. Manual adjustments were applied to maintain as much system depth continuity as feasible consistent with upper support in a pattern with gradually lowering flow predictability over time. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Arctic stream upper troughs will settle/dig over northern/northwest Alaska as additional upper troughing lifts from the southwest to an also unsettled Interior to support some scattered snows in a highly complex pattern. There are also uncertain interactions with a moderating lead lead upper ridge built northwestward from western Canada into the Interior that weakens over time. This all occurs over-top a stormy maritime pattern over the Gulf of Alaska. While multiple systems there are expected to affect a broad area this period, latest low tracks seem to best favor the AKpen/Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula/south-central AK for local terrain enhanced precipitation/wind Thursday, shifting more into Southeast AK Friday and Sunday. There also remains some signal in support of additional strong low genesis and track toward the Aleutians over the weekend into early next week. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Jan 13. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Jan 14 and Sun, Jan 16. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Thu, Jan 13. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Fri through Sun, Jan 14, 15, and 16. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html