Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 611 PM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 29 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 02 2022 ...Overview... Models and ensembles agree in depiction of an Omega block pattern over the Alaska region during this forecast period that only modestly degrades into early next week. This will be highlighted aloft by a far northeast Russia closed upper high to Bering Sea/Southwest AK ridge sandwiched underneath by upper troughs/lows. With the latter, favored areas for storm development in this pattern will be over the Gulf of Alaska where a couple of systems will bring unsettled weather to Southeast Alaska. Additionally to the west, a couple of deepened cyclones will rotate to the Aleutians. ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... The greatest uncertainties in this pattern result from the details of the block, especially as you go later in the period. This results in a rather chaotic array of surface lows near the Aleutians and also in the Gulf of Alaska. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET seem decently clustered Day 4/Sat and a composite is reasonable. Forecast spread then grows quickly, with only the 12 UTC ECMWF seemingly in line enough with the GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into days 5/6 (Sun/Mon) to add a bit more detail consistent with a pattern with below normal embedded system predictability. Chaotic and complex system interactions continue into days 7/8 when the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was derived mainly from only the ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Arctic high pressure overall holds during the medium range period to keep most of mainland Alaska dry. Meanwhile, storm systems in the Gulf will translate to unsettled conditions along the Southeast coast and Panhandle regions. Moderate to heavy precipitation there will shift slowly southward this weekend with conditions tending to dry out by early next week. A decent pressure gradient along the coast may bring a period of gusty winds as well to these areas. A number of storm systems will likely bring periods of wet and windy weather to the Aleutians through this period, and by early-mid next week potentially downstream into otherwise generally benign weather conditions into the AKpen. Temperatures across most of the state should start out below to much below normal into the weekend (except the Panhandle), though will ease with time. By early next week, parts of the Western Alaska and especially the North Slope may see temperatures rise above normal, with the Panhandle much below normal. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Jan 28-Jan 29. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Jan 28. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html