Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 2 2022 - 12Z Sun Feb 6 2022 ...Overview... A col will be in place across western Alaska for the middle of the week with a strong ridge over the Gulf region and eastern Siberia, and a deep upper low over the western Aleutians and trough over the Yukon. Multiple shortwaves pivoting around the upper level gyre will tend to erode the Gulf ridge some, and this will result in multiple rounds of precipitation for southern coastal areas of the state, with heaviest rain/snow from the Kenai Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle. ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... Overall, the 12Z guidance and the ensemble means are in relatively decent agreement on the overall synoptic scale pattern across mainland Alaska and western Canada through about Thursday. Similar to the past few days, the greatest model and forecast uncertainty resides over the Bering, Aleutians, and North Pacific with multiple shortwave perturbations pivoting around a large scale upper level gyre, with significant timing differences with the individual shortwaves as they lift northward over the Aleutians and then the Bering. There was enough agreement among the UKMET/ECMWF/GFS through early Friday to merit a blend of those models, along with some of the ECENS mean. Given the model uncertainties over the Bering/Aleutians later in the forecast period, an ensemble mean approach appears prudent as a starting point for now. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Arctic high pressure governs the weather pattern across the Interior and keeps most of mainland Alaska dry and cold. Snow showers and gusty winds are likely for the southern coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the southeast panhandle as onshore flow from the Gulf and a nearby stationary front keep things unsettled. Meanwhile, a few storm systems are expected to bring the potential for periods of wet and windy weather to the Aleutians through this period. Most of the Interior should be near to below average for temperatures, and generally above average for south-central Alaska and the Aleutians. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html