Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 648 PM EST Tue Feb 01 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 05 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022 ...Overview... A broad gyre located west of the Aleutian Chain will eject multiple shortwaves through the Gulf of Alaska during the extended period. A series of low pressure systems will spin up and track toward the southern coast and the Southeast. Meanwhile, there will be an upper high northwest of the Mainland that will retreat while an upper low drifts toward northern Canada. Each low pressure system will spread precipitation along the southern tier of the state. There may be periods where the rain and snow become heavy from the Kenai Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle. ...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... A general blend of the models provide a good starting point given that each of the solutions are very similar. Some model differences arise with the second system, but a middle ground solution is achieved by leaning more toward the CMC/ECMWF with some GFS, EC ensemble and GEFS means. The latest runs of the guidance continues to struggle with the upper ridge to trough transition in addition to whether a blocky pattern returns by the end of the extended period. Given this increased uncertainty, the use of the means were increased in the blend. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... There will be three low pressure systems that trek northward toward the southern coast and then onward to the Panhandle. Each system will spread precipitation to the southern part of the state, in the forms of multiple rounds of rain in the low/coastal areas and heavy, wet snow in the higher elevations spanning from the Alaska Peninsula to the Southeast into early next week. These systems will also promote rough seas and strong, gusty winds in the vicinity of the Aleutian Chain and the Alaska Peninsula. Mostly dry and cold conditions are expected across northern parts thanks to Arctic high pressure. Some snow showers over the northern mainland may be possible early next week as the surface high retreats. During this period the daily temperature readings that have been below normal across a majority of the interior will slowly return toward normal, while the North Slope remains below normal. Campbell Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across the Alaska Panhandle into the southern coast of Alaska, Fri-Sun, Feb 4-6. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of interior eastern Alaska, Fri, Feb 4. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html