Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 15 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022 ...Major Aleutians Storm Early Next Week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance offers a similar larger scale pattern evolution through medium range time scales. Well clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian solutions seem reasonable for Tuesday. This is evident for a main storm still near the Aleutians as well as for upper troughing and cooled lower atmospheric air lingering over the northwest Interior. Embedded system variance steadily increases after that. A combo of the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the closest model, the Canadian, adds some detail consistent with a pattern with still slightly above normal predictability Wednesday. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived just the ensemble means for the rest of next week.ĀThis maintains decent WPC product continuity, albeit with a slight trend toward progression. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... A slow moving Aleutian storm will present a lingering threat for high winds/waves and wrapping heavy precipitation into Tuesday. Subsequent deepened low threat potential will continue into mid-later next week given favorable support pattern, albeit with less certain details and downstream energy transitions across the Gulf of Alaska. Flow channeled around these lows and the periphery of an amplified northeast Pacific ridge will pump moisture fueling precipitation from the AKpen/Southwest Alaska through Southern/Southeast Alaska. There, a main threat for heavy snow later next week will be enhanced by terrain, with heavy rainfall more likely closer to the coast. Much of the Interior/North Slope should be chilly, but will slowly moderate through next week. The southern third of the Mainland should be in a more pronounced warming trend with upper level ridging, with daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal and with overnight low anomalies even greater. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed-Fri, Feb 16-Feb 18. - High winds across portions of the western Aleutians, Mon, Feb 14. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland western Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 14-Feb 15. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html