Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 15 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022
...Major Aleutians Storm Early Next Week...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance offers a similar larger scale pattern evolution through
medium range time scales. Well clustered 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian solutions seem reasonable for Tuesday.
This is evident for a main storm still near the Aleutians as well
as for upper troughing and cooled lower atmospheric air lingering
over the northwest Interior. Embedded system variance steadily
increases after that. A combo of the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means
along with the closest model, the Canadian, adds some detail
consistent with a pattern with still slightly above normal
predictability Wednesday. The WPC medium range product suite was
primarily derived just the ensemble means for the rest of next
week.ĀThis maintains decent WPC product continuity, albeit with a
slight trend toward progression.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A slow moving Aleutian storm will present a lingering threat for
high winds/waves and wrapping heavy precipitation into Tuesday.
Subsequent deepened low threat potential will continue into
mid-later next week given favorable support pattern, albeit with
less certain details and downstream energy transitions across the
Gulf of Alaska. Flow channeled around these lows and the periphery
of an amplified northeast Pacific ridge will pump moisture fueling
precipitation from the AKpen/Southwest Alaska through
Southern/Southeast Alaska. There, a main threat for heavy snow
later next week will be enhanced by terrain, with heavy rainfall
more likely closer to the coast.
Much of the Interior/North Slope should be chilly, but will slowly
moderate through next week. The southern third of the Mainland
should be in a more pronounced warming trend with upper level
ridging, with daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal and with
overnight low anomalies even greater.
Schichtel
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle,
Wed-Fri, Feb 16-Feb 18.
- High winds across portions of the western Aleutians, Mon, Feb 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland
western Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 14-Feb 15.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html