Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 515 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 19 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022 ...Overall weather pattern... A large surface high in association with a building upper level ridge axis will be in place over the northeast Pacific and southern Gulf through early next week, and this ridge axis is well inland across eastern Alaska by Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a broad upper low and surface low should be over the central Aleutians and then the Bering through the upcoming weekend, and a trough likely builds in across the Interior by next Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge axis likely gets suppressed to the south. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z deterministic guidance and the ensemble means have a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale pattern through about Monday. By Monday evening into the middle of next week, the models diverge on the eventual breakdown of the Gulf ridge and intrusion of shortwave energy from the Bering. The most apparent differences reside across the northern Bering and western Alaska, where the GFS/GEFS are more pronounced with a narrow ridge axis extending to far eastern Siberia, whereas the ECMWF/CMC are displace more to the west with that same ridge and favors more of a trough over the western coast of Alaska. By the end of the forecast period next Wednesday, models are in above average agreement on a big low pressure system near the far western Aleutians, but differ more across the Alaska mainland with the GFS being more robust with the shortwave across the southern mainland coast. Taking these considerations into account, the WPC fronts/pressures forecast is primarily derived from a CMC/ECMWF/GFS/some ECENS blend through Monday, and then primarily GEFS/ECENS/some GFS and ECMWF for next Tuesday and Wednesday. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Multiple rounds of mainly precipitation, primarily in the form of snow, are likely across central and southern portions of the mainland through early next week. The heaviest rainfall is likely for portions of the Aleutians and the southern coast, and strong winds are also possible for the central and eastern Aleutians as a strong pressure gradient will be in place across this region. Most of the state should enjoy a break from the extreme cold with temperatures generally running above average for most areas along and south of the Brooks Range, with the southwestern mainland likely to have the warmest readings this weekend and into Monday with highs 15 to perhaps 30 degrees above normal. Frigid conditions will likely continue for the Arctic Coast with flow off the Arctic Ocean. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Friday, Feb 18. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html