Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 656 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 20 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 24 2022 ...Overall weather pattern... A large surface high in association with a building upper level ridge axis will be in place over the northeast Pacific and southern Gulf through early next week, and this ridge axis is well inland across eastern Alaska by Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a broad upper low and surface low should be over the Bering through the upcoming weekend, and a weak trough likely builds in across the northern half of the state by next Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge axis likely gets suppressed to the south. A strong low pressure system then approaches the western Aleutians by the middle to end of the week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z deterministic guidance and the ensemble means have a reasonably good overall depiction of the synoptic scale pattern through about Monday, however the GFS diverges from the consensus by Monday regarding the placement of the surface low over the Bering and is much more progressive in lifting this low north towards the Arctic. There is overall better clustering with the operational CMC/ECMWF and the ECENS going through the middle of the week. The UKMET is also closer to these same solutions. By Wednesday, the CMC is on the strong side with a low developing south of the Alaska Peninsula, and only has limited ensemble support. Towards the end of the forecast period next Wednesday, models are in above average agreement on a big low pressure system near the far western Aleutians. Taking these considerations into account, the WPC fronts/pressures forecast is primarily derived from a CMC/ECMWF/UKMET/some ECENS blend through Tuesday, and then primarily ECENS/ECMWF/some GEFS mean for next Wednesday and Thursday. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Multiple rounds of mainly precipitation, primarily in the form of snow, are likely across central and southern portions of the mainland through early next week. Some areas may be warm enough for rain across the lower elevations. The heaviest rainfall is likely for portions of the Aleutians and the southern mainland, and strong winds are also possible for the central and eastern Aleutians as a strong pressure gradient will be in place across this region. Most of the state should enjoy a break from the extreme cold with temperatures generally running above average for most areas along and south of the Brooks Range, with the southwestern mainland likely to have the warmest readings this weekend and into Monday with highs 15 to perhaps 30 degrees above normal. Frigid conditions will likely continue for the Arctic Coast with flow off the Arctic Ocean. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Feb 21. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html