Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EST Tue Mar 01 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 05 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 09 2022
...Pattern Overview...
A very warm weather pattern for much of Alaska. Multiple storm
systems are forecast to traverse the North Pacific and impact the
Aleutians, work inland from the western mainland, and also affect
the southern/southeast coast Saturday-next Wednesday.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance generally shows reasonable synoptic scale agreement
on the main weather features, however continue to exhibit run to
run variability in the details. However, this has seemed to
improved to some degree, suggesting an overall forecast with near
normal predictability. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET solutions seem
best clustered and reasonable valid Day 4/Saturday and a blend
seems to have good ensemble support. Model embedded system
solutions are less clustered through the rest of the forecast
period, but the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF seem to have enough similarity
with the upper level flow pattern evolution to warrant their
addition of a bit more detail consistent with a blend of
compatible 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means.Â
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Compact but well organized low pressure lifting into the eastern
Bering Sea and western Alaska into Saturday will bring light to
moderate precipitation from southwest through western Alaska,
along with a period of gusty winds. Southerly flow well downstream
of this system and combined with another Pacific low feed lifting
across the Gulf through this weekend will also keep precipitation
in the forecast from the southern Alaskan coast to the northern
Panhandle region with moderate to heavy precipitation possible,
but dependent on exact low track. A parade of lows rotating
through the base of the mean Aleutians trough will likely keep
conditions generally unsettled into next week from the Aleutians
to the Peninsula. Elsewhere, most of interior central/eastern
Alaska should remain mostly dry through the period besides some
light precipitation associated with upper trough/frontal passage
this weekend.
Much above average temperatures should prevail across much of
Alaska through early next week, both for daytime highs and
overnight lows. The warmest anomalies are expected to be over the
northern and western parts of the state where daytime highs 20-30
degrees (and locally higher) are likely. This may include some
record values. The exception to this will be across the Panhandle
and southeastern Mainland where near or below average temps are
expected due to increased onshore flow and periods of upper level
troughing.
Schichtel
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of southern mainland Alaska,
Fri, Mar 4.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
southeast mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Mar 5-Mar 6.
- High winds across portions of southwest mainland Alaska and the
Aleutians, Fri, Mar 4.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html