Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 557 PM EST Tue Mar 01 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 05 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 09 2022 ...Pattern Overview... A very warm weather pattern for much of Alaska. Multiple storm systems are forecast to traverse the North Pacific and impact the Aleutians, work inland from the western mainland, and also affect the southern/southeast coast Saturday-next Wednesday. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The guidance generally shows reasonable synoptic scale agreement on the main weather features, however continue to exhibit run to run variability in the details. However, this has seemed to improved to some degree, suggesting an overall forecast with near normal predictability. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET solutions seem best clustered and reasonable valid Day 4/Saturday and a blend seems to have good ensemble support. Model embedded system solutions are less clustered through the rest of the forecast period, but the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF seem to have enough similarity with the upper level flow pattern evolution to warrant their addition of a bit more detail consistent with a blend of compatible 12 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Compact but well organized low pressure lifting into the eastern Bering Sea and western Alaska into Saturday will bring light to moderate precipitation from southwest through western Alaska, along with a period of gusty winds. Southerly flow well downstream of this system and combined with another Pacific low feed lifting across the Gulf through this weekend will also keep precipitation in the forecast from the southern Alaskan coast to the northern Panhandle region with moderate to heavy precipitation possible, but dependent on exact low track. A parade of lows rotating through the base of the mean Aleutians trough will likely keep conditions generally unsettled into next week from the Aleutians to the Peninsula. Elsewhere, most of interior central/eastern Alaska should remain mostly dry through the period besides some light precipitation associated with upper trough/frontal passage this weekend. Much above average temperatures should prevail across much of Alaska through early next week, both for daytime highs and overnight lows. The warmest anomalies are expected to be over the northern and western parts of the state where daytime highs 20-30 degrees (and locally higher) are likely. This may include some record values. The exception to this will be across the Panhandle and southeastern Mainland where near or below average temps are expected due to increased onshore flow and periods of upper level troughing. Schichtel Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of southern mainland Alaska, Fri, Mar 4. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southeast mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Mar 5-Mar 6. - High winds across portions of southwest mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri, Mar 4. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html