Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 520 PM EDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 28 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 01 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A pair of well organized storm systems will make weather headlines for the extended forecast period, and possibly a third surface low entering the Gulf region by the end of next week. The organizing low over the Gulf early next weekend is expected to bring gusty winds, high waves, and rounds of moderate to locally heavy precipitation from the Kenai Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle region. Strong onshore flow that is orthogonal to the terrain will enhance precipitation totals for the windward areas. The Aleutians will also be affected by another well organized low, with a strong southerly fetch of wind across the central and eastern Aleutians for the Tuesday to Wednesday time period along with periods of rain, although not currently expected to reach hazardous criteria. In terms of temperatures, most of the mainland should enjoy readings above average through the weekend, followed by a return to seasonal to below average readings for some areas through next Wednesday. It will remain quite cold for locations north of the Brooks Range. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z UKMET/CMC/ECMWF guidance suite remains in good agreement on the overall synoptic scale pattern through the beginning of next week, and these models are now supporting the development of a triple point low that tracks towards the southeast panhandle by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. The latest 12Z run of the GFS is now closer to the model consensus with the Gulf system early in the forecast period, in contrast to previous runs that had the low well to the southwest of the non-NCEP guidance. The GFS becomes stronger with another low approaching the Gulf region from the central Pacific by the end of the week. In regards to the Bering/Aleutians storm system, the GFS is only slightly displaced to the other guidance, and it is also more in line compared to yesterday. The WPC forecast was primarily derived from a multi-model deterministic blend through Tuesday night, with slightly greater weighting to the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET guidance. There is a gradual increase in the ensemble means for the second half of the forecast period to account for normal levels of increasing uncertainty. Hamrick Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Tue, Mar 28-Mar 29. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html