Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 657 PM EDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 09 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means through medium range time scales, gradually adjusting WPC blend weights from just these models day 4(Saturday) to just these ensemble means by day 8 (next Wed) as forecast spread grows. This acts to maintain max WPC product continuity. This overall forecast plan shows a series of moderate low pressure systems set to develop mainly well on the periphery of a warming/stabilizing upper ridge slated to build more over the mainland in a pattern with overall limited significant hazards potential over the state. Precipitation would be limited over the state during this medium range forecast period in this scenario, mainly with expected moderate Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea low translations offshore but closest to the Aleutians and western Alaska. However, predictability decreases from above to below normal over the upcoming week. It was noted in collaboration that the uncertainty was most evident as per Canadian and NAVGEM outlier solutions that offer lower heights/more system digging over the mainland as alternate solutions, albeit with minimal ensemble support despite a potentially favorable upstream ridge position. Schichtel Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html