Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 09 2022 - 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard
Highlights...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived
from a blend of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means through medium range time scales,
gradually adjusting WPC blend weights from just these models day
4(Saturday) to just these ensemble means by day 8 (next Wed) as
forecast spread grows. This acts to maintain max WPC product
continuity. This overall forecast plan shows a series of moderate
low pressure systems set to develop mainly well on the periphery
of a warming/stabilizing upper ridge slated to build more over the
mainland in a pattern with overall limited significant hazards
potential over the state. Precipitation would be limited over the
state during this medium range forecast period in this scenario,
mainly with expected moderate Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea low
translations offshore but closest to the Aleutians and western
Alaska. However, predictability decreases from above to below
normal over the upcoming week. It was noted in collaboration that
the uncertainty was most evident as per Canadian and NAVGEM
outlier solutions that offer lower heights/more system digging
over the mainland as alternate solutions, albeit with minimal
ensemble support despite a potentially favorable upstream ridge
position.
Schichtel
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html