Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 10 2022 - 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard
Highlights...
Medium range guidance seems in better agreement for the weekend
and a composite solution from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian
seems a good place to start into Sun. These 12 UTC models now seem
to offer more similarities with the flow into next week than
yesterday's versions and in particular the Canadian certainly has
trended away from an outlier solution into next week. However,
significant embedded system amplitude/timing differences remain at
both lower and higher latitudes. The 12 UTC ECMWF seems most in
line with closer to near normal predictability. This overall
forecast plan shows low pressure systems set to develop on the
periphery of a warming/stabilizing upper ridge slated to build
over the mainland in a pattern with overall limited significant
hazards potential over the state. Precipitation would be limited
over the state during this medium range forecast period in this
scenario, modestly with energies digging through the North Slope
and eastern Interior/Gulf of Alaska early period and more
earnestly with a prolonged low position near the Aleutians next
week.
Schichtel
Hazards:
No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this
forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html