Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 607 PM EDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 13 2022 - 12Z Sun Apr 17 2022 ...Pattern and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An amplified upper ridge over the Mainland becomes more blocky next week as multiple low pressure systems moderately develop on the periphery, near the Aleutians/Bering and also with some uncertainty digging from the Arctic Ocean down through the far eastern Interior/Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. This pattern should be conducive for warmer and drier conditions for most locations; which will limit or negate any potential hazardous conditions statewide. Precipitation should be limited over the state during this forecast period in this scenario due to the shielding/blocky upper ridge. Mainly modest activity with energy digging to the lee of the upper ridge may be more prolonged with upper troughs/lows over the southern Bering/Aleutians whose undercutting system energies eventually emerge into the far western Gulf of Alaska. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian solutions seem decently clustered day 4/Wed, but considering the blocky pattern am uncomfortable with the GFS/UKMET days 5/6 that weaken the mainland ridge more quickly than a favored composite of the similar ECMWF/Canadian. More pronounced embedded system variances into day 7/8 (next weekend) prompted a switch to ensembles at these longer time frames and prefer the ECMWF ensemble mean that is slower to weaken the upper ridge than the GEFS/NAEFS. Noted the ECMWF/Canadian models by day 7/8Â dig ample upper trough energies westward into the mainland ridge more strongly than the ECMWF ensemble mean, but was not embraced. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html