Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 621 PM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 14 2022 - 12Z Mon Apr 18 2022 ...Pattern and Weather/Hazard Highlights... An upper level ridge axis is forecast to be in place across mainland Alaska for the end of the week and into next weekend, with an anomalous surface high becoming entrenched north of the Arctic Coast. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system should cross the central Aleutians and then slowly weaken over the Bering through the end of the week. An even more impressive storm may approach this same region for the beginning of next week, along with another low entering the Gulf of Alaska. Most of the state should behind the extended period with temperatures generally near to above average, and then colder weather arrives in time for the weekend for the eastern half of the state as a cold front moves in from western Canada. Milder conditions should continue for the southwestern mainland going into the beginning of next week. In terms of precipitation, most of the Interior region should remain dry, and periods of rain and mountain snow are likely for coastal regions of southern Alaska as storm systems pass south of the coast. Windy conditions are also possible for portions of the Aleutians by the end of the forecast period. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite is initially in good synoptic scale agreement and captures the omega block pattern well. By Saturday and beyond, there is better model agreement among the ECMWF/CMC regarding the evolution and track of both the Gulf and Aleutians low pressure systems, with the GFS nearly non-existent with the Aleutians low early next week which increases uncertainty in this event. The GFS and UKMET are also faster with the trough entering the Gulf region by early Saturday compared to the ensemble means. Farther north, model consensus is good with the Arctic surface high holding strong for the northern third of the state. For the fronts/pressures forecast, a nearly deterministic model blend suffices for Thursday, and then transitioning to more weighting on the ECMWF/CMC solutions going into Friday and Saturday, with more ensemble means by Sunday and Monday. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html