Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 21 2022 - 12Z Mon Apr 25 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite has a decent overall depiction of the two main low pressure centers of interest over the North Pacific on Thursday, although the GFS/GEFS is ahead of the non-NCEP guidance for the big storm just south of the Aleutians. The models are still well clustered for the weakening remnants of former Typhoon Malakas over the Gulf and this should dissipate by Friday. The UKMET solution is close to the ECENS and between the western CMC/ECMWF and the eastern GFS solution for the Aleutians storm entering the Gulf region. By Saturday, the CMC is likely a little too slow with this system, and the GFS is stronger with a closed low emerging from eastern Siberia. It is interesting to note that model agreement actually improves some by the end of the extended forecast period next Monday across the Gulf with the main closed upper level gyre, and the GEFS/ECENS are also in good agreement there, but models diverge more with the next system approaching the Aleutians/Bering Sea by that time. ...Overview Weather/Hazard Highlights... With the remnants of what was formerly Typhoon Malakas primarily gone by Thursday, attention turns to a rather large low pressure system near the Aleutians with strong winds and extremely rough seas to end the work week, along with multiple rounds of wind-driven wind for the central and eastern Aleutians. Going into next weekend, this low is forecast to emerge over the Gulf albeit in a weaker form. There will be enough of a moisture plume directed at the coast to produce widespread showers from the Alaska Peninsula to the southeast Panhandle region for Friday through Sunday, with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain for the lower elevations, and heavy mountain snow. Elsewhere, much of the Interior and North Slope should remain dry, with temperatures generally running above average across much of the mainland. The exception would be for the southern coastal areas with some below average readings owing to increased clouds and precipitation. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html