Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 26 2022 - 12Z Sat Apr 30 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from
a 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian composite for Day 4/Tue that
increasingly transitions Wednesday into Thursday to completely the
more compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means by days 7/8 amid
growing forecast spread and uncertainty. While model system
variances are less than stellar even early into the medium range
time scales, there are some predictable components to justify
inclusion of model input for at least through midweek. The
resultant blended solution along with the 19 UTC NBM maintains
reasonable WPC product continuity.
...Overview Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Lingering low pressure systems over the eastern Gulf of Alaska
next week will continue some light to locally terrain enhanced
moderate precipitation across the southern Coast, but mainly the
Panhandle. Activity should wane with time as the lows weaken and
lose influence. Moderate precipitation will also progress across
the Aleutians and the Alaskan Peninsula/Kodiak Island with a
couple of frontal systems/main lows through the period and as
amplified upper low/troughing focus gradually transitions outward
from the southern Bering Sea to the western Gulf of Alaska. Much
of the Mainland should remain dry next week. However, uncertain
but potentially amplified upper impulse/trough developments and
terrain may favor some very localized enhanced snows for northern
Alaska/the Interior.
Schichtel
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html