Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 30 2022 - 12Z Wed May 04 2022
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The flow pattern across Alaska is getting more active as a series
of low pressure systems affect portions of the Aleutians and
southern Coast/Panhandle through the period. The latest 12z
deterministic models seem to offer a good starting point, with
some more weighting towards the ECMWF given consistency with
ensemble means. After the weekend though, the GFS/GEFS get quicker
with a low near the Aleutians into the Gulf, while the CMC and
UKMET are slower. WPC favors a middle ground solution closest to
the ECMWF and the ECENS/NAEFS means. By the later period, switched
focus towards an equal mix of the deterministic ECMWF/GFS and
ECENS/NAEFS means to help mitigate some of the smaller scale
differences as one low settles into the Gulf of Alaska and another
shifts towards the Aleutians. This maintains good WPC product
continuity.
...Overview Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A cold front moving east into the Gulf will help direct some
moisture, with locally heavy precipitation, into the Alaska
Peninsula and Kodiak island region on Saturday. Triple point
redevelopment across the Gulf will offer a maritime wind/wave
threat and help spread some generally light precipitation east
along the southern Coast into Sunday. Another round of enhanced
precipitation should impact the Panhandle by Sunday-Monday as the
cold front moves through. Several lows passing close to the
Aleutians should bring a couple of rounds of generally light
precipitation Sunday-Wednesday. Elsewhere, expect much of the
Interior and North Slope to mainly remain dry for the coming week
in a benign weather pattern with temperatures near or above
normal, especially for parts of northern and western Alaska.
Santorelli
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html