Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022
Valid 12Z Tue May 10 2022 - 12Z Sat May 14 2022
...Overview...
A strong upper trough is forecast over much of the mainland for
the beginning of next week, and this trough should then move
towards the southeast Panhandle region and deepen through midweek.
Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to develop over the
Bering Sea, and north of a persistent upper level and surface low
over the North Pacific. Additional troughing may develop over the
mainland during the latter part of the week.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The 12Z model guidance suite is initially in good overall
agreement for next Tuesday before model uncertainty increases
going into midweek and beyond. The area with greatest model
disagreement is across the Arctic region, and also across the
western Aleutians for the end of next week. More weighting was
placed on the ensemble means for Wednesday through next Saturday,
whilst still maintaining some previous WPC continuity.
...Weather and Hazard Highlights...
Increasing precipitation chances are likely across portions of
interior Alaska for the beginning of the week as troughing and a
surface front/trough cross the area. The precipitation should
spread across southeastern Alaska and the Panhandle Tuesday and
Wednesday, but heavy totals are generally not expected given the
overall synoptic scale set-up. Another round of light
precipitation is possible for the interior Wednesday and beyond
next week. Some river flooding can also be expected owing to
rising temperatures and snow melt.
Much of interior Alaska can expect normal to below normal high
temperatures through the period. The Alaska Peninsula could
gradually warm through the week as ridging builds in. Meanwhile,
the Panhandle has the best chance of seeing below average
temperatures for both highs and lows owing to increased cloud
cover and precipitation.
Hamrick
Hazards:
- Flooding possible across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri,
May 9-May 13.
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html