Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 Valid 12Z Tue May 10 2022 - 12Z Sat May 14 2022 ...Overview... A strong upper trough is forecast over much of the mainland for the beginning of next week, and this trough should then move towards the southeast Panhandle region and deepen through midweek. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to develop over the Bering Sea, and north of a persistent upper level and surface low over the North Pacific. Additional troughing may develop over the mainland during the latter part of the week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z model guidance suite is initially in good overall agreement for next Tuesday before model uncertainty increases going into midweek and beyond. The area with greatest model disagreement is across the Arctic region, and also across the western Aleutians for the end of next week. More weighting was placed on the ensemble means for Wednesday through next Saturday, whilst still maintaining some previous WPC continuity. ...Weather and Hazard Highlights... Increasing precipitation chances are likely across portions of interior Alaska for the beginning of the week as troughing and a surface front/trough cross the area. The precipitation should spread across southeastern Alaska and the Panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday, but heavy totals are generally not expected given the overall synoptic scale set-up. Another round of light precipitation is possible for the interior Wednesday and beyond next week. Some river flooding can also be expected owing to rising temperatures and snow melt. Much of interior Alaska can expect normal to below normal high temperatures through the period. The Alaska Peninsula could gradually warm through the week as ridging builds in. Meanwhile, the Panhandle has the best chance of seeing below average temperatures for both highs and lows owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Hamrick Hazards: - Flooding possible across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, May 9-May 13. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html