Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025


...General Overview...

A potent shortwave crossing the southern Plains Monday will
sustain a surface low, with plenty of deep moisture surging north
to support widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms. This
shortwave should weaken through Tuesday as the storm system over
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest becomes the dominant weather
feature by the middle of the week. This will usher in a much colder
Canadian surface high behind a cold front tracking towards the East
Coast around Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, periods of rain and mountain
snow are likely for the Pacific Northwest with an active storm
track over the northeast Pacific, and an upper trough likely
amplifies over the interior Western U.S. in time for next weekend.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest 00Z model guidance suite features decent overall
synoptic scale agreement for the beginning of the work week, with a
general deterministic model blend working out well as a starting
point through Wednesday. However, recent runs of the GFS have been
slower with the progression of the main cold front across the
east-central U.S. when compared to the model consensus, so a little
less GFS was used for Wednesday and beyond to account for this. By
the end of the forecast period Friday into Saturday, there is good
overall agreement for an expansive surface high to settle in
across the east-central U.S. with broad cyclonic flow aloft over
the Northeast states. Model guidance is trending stronger with a
building trough over the Western U.S. by next weekend, so that is
something that will continue to be monitored in the days ahead.
The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Saturday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

For the Day 4/Tuesday outlook, a Marginal Risk will remain valid
from eastern Mississippi to the southern Appalachians where the
best model signal exists for organized showers and storms, albeit
some weakening is expected compared to Sunday and Monday. Out West,
a Marginal Risk has been introduced for the Day 5/Wednesday time
period for northwestern Oregon and western Washington as a
potential atmospheric river sets up and advects copious moisture
towards the coast. Cold air advection combined with the deformation
zone on the western side of the Upper Midwest storm system will
likely result in light to moderate snow from the Dakotas to
northern Minnesota.

Temperatures are expected to be mild for this time of year from the
Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region ahead of the cold front, with
highs running 5-15+ degrees above late November averages through
Tuesday. This mild airmass then reaches the East Coast by
Wednesday with highs well into the 50s and 60s for many areas,
followed by a return to slightly below average conditions to close
out the week. There will be enough cold air advection across the
Great Lakes to support lake effect snows across northern Michigan,
and also from northeast Ohio to central New York for Thanksgiving
and into early Friday. A modest warm-up is likely for the
northwestern U.S. towards Thanksgiving as the early colder airmass
modifies and flow from the Pacific moves into the region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw