EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EST THU FEB 06 2014 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 09 2014 - 12Z THU FEB 13 2014 ...OVERVIEW... THOUGH THE HIGH LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC WILL UNDERGO A PATTERN FLIP... THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE CONUS SHOULD HOLD WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN A SWITCH FROM MUCH OF DEC-JAN THAT WAS DOMINATED BY DRY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW... THIS CONUS TROUGHING THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A PACIFIC CONNECTION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NEAR 25N/130W WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DEFLECT MOISTURE AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND DIRECT IT TOWARD THE REST OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD FLOW DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE US/MEXICAN BORDER INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... CONTINUING THE ACTIVE/STORMY PATTERN. ...PREFERENCES... THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON HOW TO HANDLE TROUGHING EXITING THE EAST COAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH GREAT LAKES MID-LEVEL ENERGY MON/D4 COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND EC ENSEMBLES... BUT HAS SUPPORT FROM MANY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. NEVERTHELESS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO AMPLIFY CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND SEEING AS HOW THIS ENERGY HAS BEEN MISHANDLED FOR SO LONG OVER THE PAC NW... INCLUDED AT LEAST SOME WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS MEAN WITH THE 12Z/05 ECMWF/ECENS MEAN THROUGH DAY 5. THIS BLEND ALSO SERVED WELL IN THE WEST SINCE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON TIMING ENERGY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MON/D4 WHEREAS THE GEFS MEAN FITS CLOSER TO THE ECENS MEAN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH TX WED/D6 AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THU/D7. THE 12Z/05 ECMWF WAS NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN NEARLY ALL OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THEREFORE WAS DROPPED FROM THE BLEND...WHILE THE 18Z GFS WAS FASTER. GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM ALONG WITH ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...HAVE RELIED UPON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS AN INITIAL GUIDE WHILE EMPHASIZING THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT INCLUDES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 7. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE IN TIME OVER CA AND THE INTERIOR WEST AS ITS SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODEST RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG I-40... NORTH TO ABOUT I-90... BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG I-80. IN THE EAST... AFTER THE SYSTEM IN THE NW ATLANTIC DEPARTS... IN WHATEVER MANNER... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL. FOR WED-THU/D6-7... THE PACIFIC NW WILL SEE A RENEWED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MOSTLY ON BC/WA/OR...WHILE RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AREAS. FRACASSO/JAMES