EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2014 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 11 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014 ...NWRN US WET FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM US WINTER LOW THREATS... RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LOWER 48 FLOW OVERALL IS SLOW TO AMPLIFY IN A MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PATTERN LEADING INTO A BROAD MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL WRN US RIDGE AND EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGH. THE MODELS SUFFER FROM RUN-RUN TIMING/EMPHASIS CONTINUITY ISSUES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUSING WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN A MORE CONSISTENT LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION. ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TENDED TO A LESSER DEGREE MIMIC SOME OF THE DAILY TRENDS INHERENT TO THEIR DETERMINISTIC SISTER MODELS...BUT BY NATURE IN THIS FLOW TYPE OFFER MORE STABLE GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH UNCERTAINTY. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFICS OF SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS...THE LARGER PATTERN AND MOISTURE DOES SEEM QUITE FAVORABLE FOR WET FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE NWRN US IN A PROLONGED SERIES OF INLAND BREACHING SYSTEMS. THE INLAND TRANSLATION OF PACIFIC AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES THEN LEADS INTO EMERGING CENTRAL TO ERN US WINTER LOW THREATS. THE DETAILS OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS ALOFT AND ANY EVENTUAL NRN STREAM INTERACTION HAS LEAD TO QUITE AN ARRAY RECENTLY OF POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED LOW TRACK OPTIONS RANGING FROM A NUISANCE STREAKS OF WINTER PCPN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WELL DEVELOPED EAST COAST STORMS. ACCORDINGLY...WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEANS/MODEL CONCENSUS APPROACH WITH SUBSEQUENT MANUAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WITH AN EYE TO CONTINUITY. SCHICHTEL