EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1229 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 VALID 12Z FRI FEB 14 2014 - 12Z TUE FEB 18 2014 ...PROLONGED ACTIVE AND WET FLOW OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY... ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LOWER 48 FLOW GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY DEFINED BY A WARMING WRN US RIDGE AND COOLING/UNSETTLING EAST-CENTRAL US TROUGHING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THIS PATTERN THEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC FLOW WORKS INTO THE WEST. THE MODELS OFFER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUSING WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN A MORE CONSISTENT LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION...BUT THESE ISSUES HAVE LESSENED SOMEWHAT RECENTLY AND NOW LEND NEAR AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. OVERALL...WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF REASONABLY COMPATABLE 18 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND AN EYE TOWARD CONTINUITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LEANING MORE UPON ENSEMBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AMID INCREASING MODEL FORECAST SPREAD. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... WET PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE PAC NW OVER THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF INLAND BREACHING SYSTEMS. EXPECT MORE HEAVY COASTAL AND TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN/SNOWS FROM WRN WA/OR TO NRN CA WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INLAND OVER THE NW QUARTER OF THE NATION...ALBEIT WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN MAXIMAS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...A LINGERING MAJOR COASTAL STORM EXITS NEW ENG FRI. AN ORGANIZED GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST CLIPPER LOW WITH A MODEST NRN TIER SNOW SWATH FRI EXITS/DEEPENS OFF NEW ENG INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT/SUN AS A MORE SUPPRESSED TRAILING CLIPPER TRACKS THRU THE MIDWEST/MID-ATLANTIC. COLD AIRMASS SURGES INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN US IN THE WAKE OF CLIPPER PASSAGES WARM AND MOISTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW/MODEST PCPN ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WRN US FRONT. SCHICHTEL