EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 112 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 VALID 12Z WED MAR 19 2014 - 12Z SUN MAR 23 2014 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS... THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE OVERALL CONVERGED UPON A BETTER CLUSTERED MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION FOR THE LOWER 48 AND VICINITY...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY...WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM A COMPOSITE OF THESE REASONABLY COMPATABLE GUIDANCE PIECES. FAVORABLE CONTINUITY IS ALSO MAINTAINED EVEN WITH A TREND TOWARD PROGRESSION AS THE OVERALL FLOW LOSES AMPLITIDE OVER TIME NEXT WEEK. ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL COOLING TROUGH AND LEAD FRONTAL PUSH WORKS OVER THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US WED/THU. WELL ORGANIZED LATE WINTER CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS SNOW SWATH POTENTIAL ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE LOW TRACK/PCPN SWATH AS A WARMING PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH MODEST PCPN OCCURS ALONG/AHEAD OF A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM PUNCHES PCPN THRU THE NW US AND N-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKIES WED/THU. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN INCREASINGLY FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FRI-NEXT SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US. THE SPUN UP LOW SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS OVER THE NRN US TIER AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN IN THE WAKE OF WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGE. EXPECT MORE ROLLER COASTER WEATHER SHIFTS CONTRASTING LEAD WARMING WITH MODEST MOISTURE/PCPN. FURTHER UPSTREAM...LESS DEFINED IMPULSES PROGRESS IN THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE STRONGER LEAD SYSTEMS. SCHICHTEL